The Market Thinks It Can Predict What the Fed Will Do - Blog Banner

The Market Thinks It Can Predict What the Federal Reserve Will Do. It Can’t.

06/19/2019

Markets, particularly liquid markets, contain a lot of information, and for that reason most economists agree that we should pay attention to what they can tell us about the broader economy, at least in the short term. But are markets good at predicting everything? When it comes to the Federal Reserve’s decisions about interest rates, the answer seems to be no.


The Fed met June 18–19 amid expectations that it will cut rates in the second half of the year. Many market participants believe Fed action is necessary to offset the perceived economic slowdown taking hold in the US and globally. For equity investors, a cut in interest rates is perceived as the elixir that cures all ills. Look no further than the June employment report to see how this plays out.


Entering June, the market was expecting the US economy to add somewhere in the neighborhood of 175,000 jobs. On June 7 the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US economy added a paltry 75,000 jobs and revised down its estimates for March and April. US stocks rallied after the release of the report, with market participants convinced that the weak results gave the Fed cover to begin cutting rates.


In fact, it’s clear now that the market is expecting the Fed to fully reverse course and cut rates multiple times in the next year. How do we know this? We can observe market expectations through Fed funds futures, which trade in volume every day on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Every article I see about potential Fed rate changes points out market expectations by referring to the Fed funds futures market. That’s why I found the graph below, originally published by Deutsche Bank and adapted by Parametric’s research team, so interesting.


Federla Funds Chart


Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Parametric, 6/12/2019. For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investments are subject to risk of loss.


Deutsche Bank looked back at the past 18 years to see exactly how well the Fed funds futures did at predicting what the Fed would subsequently do. Not too well, as it turns out. Our research team expanded the graph back all the way to 1989 and found similar results, as the chart above shows. During the years immediately after the global financial crisis, for example, the market consistently expected the Fed to raise rates, but for nearly seven years it never did. Similarly, once the Fed did start raising rates, in the fourth quarter of 2015, the market repeatedly expected it to slow down. And yet it didn’t. 


As we can see on the right-hand side of the chart, circled in yellow, the market now appears to expect the Fed to cut rates by approximately 0.5% to 1% over the next 12 months. Why do we think the market will be better at predicting the future now when it’s been so challenged at doing so in the past?


The bottom line

One would expect Fed funds futures—which trade in a market that’s deep and liquid—to be more accurate in determining the timing of Fed rate changes. The fact that it’s been consistently incorrect in the past argues, at least in this case, to be cautious about accepting what the market is telling us about Fed policy in the future.



Tom Lee

Tom Lee, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Equities and Derivatives

Tom leads Parametric’s Research, Strategy, Portfolio Management, and Trading teams, coordinating resources, aligning priorities, and establishing processes for achieving clients' investment objectives. Tom has coauthored articles on topics ranging from liability-driven investing to the volatility risk premium. He is a voting member of all the firm's investment committees. Prior to joining Parametric in 1994 (originally as an employee of the Clifton Group, which was acquired by Parametric in 2012), Tom spent two years working for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC. He earned a BS in economics and an MBA in finance from the University of Minnesota. A CFA charterholder, Tom is a member of the CFA Society of Minnesota.    


The views expressed in these posts are those of the authors and are current only through the date stated. These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and Parametric and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied upon as investment advice and, because investment decisions for Parametric are based on many factors, may not be relied upon as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Parametric strategy. The discussion herein is general in nature and is provided for informational purposes only. There is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments are subject to the risk of loss.

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