The outlook for broad commodities in 2026 appears increasingly optimistic. After a period of volatility and adjustment, global commodity markets may be poised to benefit from a confluence of positive trends in the new year. Let’s review the major themes shaping each sector.
Energy markets seeking stability amid transition
Energy commodities enter 2026 at an interesting crossroads. On one hand, oil and gas markets have abundant supply and somewhat softer pricing. On the other hand, the ongoing energy transition is accelerating investment in new energy sources.
The good news is that lower fossil fuel prices have helped ease global inflation and provided economic relief for consumers and businesses. Oil prices declined through 2025 due to a growing supply glut, and we think prices could remain moderate in 2026. That would keep fuel costs manageable for industry.
Lower energy input costs act like a tax cut for the global economy, boosting consumption and freeing up resources for growth. Even after recent price drops, oil prices are still higher than pre-pandemic levels, underscoring that we haven’t entered a deflationary bust. Instead, the energy market may be stabilizing at a new equilibrium that helps to balance producer and consumer interests.
Crucially, a slight cooling in oil demand growth partly reflects positive structural change: electric vehicle (EV) adoption and efficiency improvements. Global EV sales are breaking records, with more than 20 million EVs expected to be sold in 2025—over one-quarter of all new cars. While this rapid electrification of transport is reducing long-term oil demand growth, it brings a silver lining for commodities: EVs and renewable energy systems require significant amounts of metals and new infrastructure. Overall, though oil may cede some ground, other commodities stand to gain.
Accelerating energy transition fueling new demand
Perhaps the brightest spot in the commodity outlook is accelerating investment in the energy transition. Worldwide, governments and companies are channeling unprecedented capital into renewable energy, clean technologies and grid infrastructure.
According to the International Energy Agency, global energy sector investment is set to reach a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, with roughly two-thirds going into clean energy technologies—renewables, power grids, energy storage and low carbon fuels. In a remarkable shift, that would double the investment going into fossil fuel supply, when a decade ago, clean energy was less than half of energy spending. Solar power alone is attracting around $450 billion annually, more than any other energy technology.
In China, Europe and the US, strong investment in renewable energy and associated infrastructure has already boosted demand for base metals like aluminum, critical for lightweight vehicles and grid equipment, and copper, essential for electrical wiring in solar farms and EVs. That trend is expected to continue into 2026 as countries race to expand green capacity and meet climate targets.
Industrial metals poised to benefit from growth
Along with green investments, infrastructure spending continues as global growth stabilizes. Industrial metals and minerals, the backbone of construction and manufacturing, may be on track to demonstrate resilience in 2026. Despite some headwinds in recent years from China’s property sector slowdown, base metals have held up relatively well and even rallied in late 2025. Metals like copper, aluminum and tin are positioned for solid demand.
The World Bank observed that resilient activity in major economies plus strong renewable investment have boosted demand for these metals, helping push base metal prices higher in 2025. Going into 2026, we expect base metal prices to remain broadly stable or even rise modestly, reflecting this firm demand base.
Risk management solutions for uncertain markets
Precious metals shining with safe-haven appeal
Beyond fuels and industrial inputs, precious metals are another key sector with a potentially bright outlook for 2026. Gold and silver have been standout performers, recently hitting all-time highs amid global uncertainty. Investors seeking safety and central banks making purchases in 2025 drove a large surge in gold demand; likewise, silver jumped significantly. Optimism on gold and its peers may carry into 2026 for three reasons:
1. In a world of evolving monetary policy, gold is an asset that tends to appreciate when real interest rates fall or uncertainty rises. With the US Federal Reserve and other central banks easing rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, often boosting its appeal.
2. Central banks themselves have been major gold buyers, with purchases more than doubling since 2022 compared to pre-2020 averages. This official sector demand has provided a firm floor under the market.
3. As long as geopolitical conflicts and market uncertainties like inflation fears persist, retail and institutional investors both tend to increase allocations to safe-haven assets.
Agricultural commodities sustaining demand
Though often overlooked, the agriculture sector is crucial for global consumers and investors alike. We view the outlook here as cautiously optimistic. After the price volatility of the early 2020s, many agricultural markets have now entered a period of relative stability. Strong harvests, improved supply chain logistics and adequate inventories have helped make food commodity prices more affordable in many regions. For instance, global supplies of grains like wheat and corn have been ample, leading to softer prices and even modest declines in 2025.
From an investor’s perspective, stable agricultural prices mean less risk of disruptive spikes, though opportunities remain in certain agricultural commodities—for example, coffee prices spiked in 2025 on weather and supply concerns. By 2026, those distortions may begin to normalize.
Nevertheless, global demand for agricultural goods remains on an upward trend due to rising populations and incomes—especially in emerging markets, where diets diversify and protein consumption grows. Even with near-term price stability, the volume of agricultural trade is likely to expand, benefiting agro-exporters and the sector broadly. Additionally, new markets and uses for certain crops, such as biofuels or plant-based products, could provide other avenues for growth.
The bottom line
Broad commodity markets enter 2026 on a hopeful note. Structural transformations like the energy transition create new engines of demand for metals and materials, even as their efficiency gains tend to promote price stability in traditional energy.
For investors, the key message is that potential opportunities in commodities may emerge from multiple directions. Whether it’s oil and gas adjusting to a new equilibrium, metals riding the green tech wave or agricultural products being leveraged through technology and logistics to feed the world, we see a renewed sense of growth and adaptability in the asset class. Risks always remain—geopolitical shocks or unexpected weather patterns could still surprise—but in our view, the narrative for 2026 could be one of strength and optimism.
The views expressed in these posts are those of the authors and are current only through the date stated. These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and Parametric and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied upon as investment advice and, because investment decisions for Parametric are based on many factors, may not be relied upon as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Parametric strategy. The discussion herein is general in nature and is provided for informational purposes only. There is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments are subject to the risk of loss. Prospective investors should consult with a tax or legal advisor before making any investment decision. Please refer to the Disclosure page on our website for important information about investments and risks.
12.05.2026 | RO 5041625
