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Weekly Fixed Income Insights


Track what matters in fixed income: Macro news, policy moves and developments in the municipal and corporate markets.

Fixed Income Five:  November Credit and Preferred Outlook 

November 6, 2025

Fixed income portfolio manager Kevin Lynyak shares his insights into the current bond market. Listen now:

Fixed Income Five: 3Q Bank Earnings and the Hunt for Cockroaches

October 22, 2025

Fixed income portfolio manager Kevin Lynyak shares his insights into the current bond market. Listen now:


November 18, 2025


Macro update



The record 43-day government shutdown ended last week, and economic data is set to resume with some omissions. These omissions may include the unemployment rate and the Consumer Price Index. The market will receive more than two dozen data points in a potentially short time frame, which could invite volatility (Bloomberg, 11/14/2025). 


Fed-related rhetoric continues to suggest a divided Fed, with fed funds futures declining to a 37% probability of a December rate cut from almost 100% the day before the last FOMC meeting. The Fed’s quantitative tightening program is also set to end on December 1, which will end balance sheet runoff and maintain reserve adequacy (Bloomberg, 11/14/2025).


US Supreme Court hearings regarding President Trump’s use of tariff powers concluded, with a ruling expected to be released in early 2026 (Bloomberg, 11/14/2025).


Recent rhetoric from the White House has included the prospects of 50-year home mortgages and $2,000 tariff-driven dividend payments for individuals. Both concepts may be fleeting.


Municipal bond update



Benchmark AAA municipal yields were unchanged across the curve last week, with two- and five-year maturity yields remaining at 2.46% and 2.41%, respectively. Further out the curve, 10-year maturity yields stand at 2.75% and the 30-year maturity yield is 4.14% (LSEG MMD, 11/14/2025).


Five- to 30-year A-rated municipal yields now range from 2.59% to 4.56%, with related taxable-equivalent yields ranging from 4.38% to 7.70%, assuming a combined federal tax rate of 40.8% (LSEG MMD, Parametric, 11/14/2025). 


Muni mutual funds saw net inflows of approximately $405 million, with ETF inflows of $481 million more than offsetting slight ETF outflows of $75 million (JPMorgan, 11/12/2025).


Tax-exempts outperformed Treasurys for the third consecutive week, with the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index increasing nine basis points (bps), versus a 24-bps decrease for the Bloomberg US Treasury Index, leaving those year-to-date (YTD) total returns at 4.10% and 5.85%, respectively (Bloomberg, 11/14/2025).


The municipal primary calendar this week comes roaring back, with a massive $16 billion set to enter the market. This continues the saw-toothed pattern of the last few months. We expect new supply to diminish post-Thanksgiving, setting the stage for further muni catch up to YTD Treasury and corporate gains (Ipreo, 11/14/2025). 


Municipal Index Yield to Worst


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Sources: LSEG, Parametric, 11/18/2025. For illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.



Corporate bond update



US investment-grade (IG) corporate yields increased across the curve last week. Two-, five- and 10-year yields all rose five bps. Corporate yields are lower across the curve YTD. Two-, five- and 10-year yields have fallen 57, 56 and 39 bps, respectively (Bloomberg, 11/14/2025).


The ICE BofA 1–10 Year US Corporate Index returned -0.09% for the week and -0.06% month to date (MTD). The index outperformed like-duration Treasurys by 0.04% for the week but have underperformed by -0.10% MTD (Bloomberg, 11/14/2025).


IG mutual funds and ETFs experienced inflows of $5.1 billion, a decrease from the previous week’s inflows of $10.3 billion. Corporate-only funds experienced inflows of $1.2 billion, following the previous week’s inflows of $4.2 billion (JPMorgan, 11/14/2025).


Corporate one- to 10-year IG bond yields have decreased 59 bps YTD and ended last week at 4.6% (Bloomberg, 11/14/2025).



Corporate Index Yield to Worst


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Source: Bloomberg as of 11/18/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment.



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The views expressed are those of the authors and are current only through the date stated. These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and Parametric and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied upon as investment advice and, because investment decisions for Parametric are based on many factors, may not be relied upon as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Parametric strategy. The discussion herein is general in nature and is provided for informational purposes only. There is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments are subject to the risk of loss. Prospective investors should consult with a tax or legal advisor before making any investment decision. Please refer to the Disclosure page on our website for important information about investments and risks.