Corporate Bond Market Insight - War-Shocked Markets Mark an Uptick in Uncertainty
Key takeaways from the latest edition:
The International Energy Agency described the energy conflict stemming from attacks on energy infrastructure and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”
Though the U.S. has become less dependent on imported energy in the last decade, the longer the conflict persists means the resulting economic slowdown will be larger.
The Fed faces a dilemma between raising rates and avoiding tightening credit, adopting a neutral, data-dependent stance while considering energy shocks as mostly headline inflation drivers.
Q1 GDP growth is expected between 2.0% and 3.0%, with weather and strikes affecting employment data.